Superforecasting by Instaread


By Instaread

  • Publication Date: 2015-12-14
  • Genre: Study Aids

Book Summary

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts…
PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. 
Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:
• Overview of the book
• Important People
• Key Takeaways
• Analysis of Key Takeaways
About the Author
With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

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Book Opinions

  • Decisions

    By Musiclover2072
    Philip Tetlock has been studying that question since the Reagan era and has observed forecasters from pundits and intelligence analysts to filmmakers and pipe fitters to try to learn why some people are better at making predictions than others. In this book, he describes his work and that of others and presents some techniques that may help all of us make better decisions.
  • Recommend reading.

    By Bookjunkie19
    This book gives an overview on what the original book is about and lists and analyzes key takeaways. This book discusses a group of people researchers refer to as "superforecasters" because they are better at forecasting than professionals. This book was more interesting to me than I thought it would be. Predicting the future can be very valuable, and we need more reliable individuals to do the predicting. I enjoyed reading this book, and I recommend it.
  • Summary

    By Rich Long47
    There are 11 Key Takeways in this Instaread summary. Here are a couple to whet your appetite: >>>#1 - "Professional forecasters do not usually make accurate predictions, and their forecasts are not evaluated in any meaningful way. As with doctors, forecasters' predictions must be measured and judged for accuracy in order for the field of prediction science to advance." >>>#5 - "The GJP was a success. Superforecasters were found by one measure to be 30 percent better than field experts, and many got better over time instead of regressing to the mean."
  • Very helpful book.

    By Silentdarkness19
    In our world there are hundreds of pundits, journalists, political analysts, and bloggers making predictions about the future. These predictions vary from what features the next iPhone will have, to the consequences of our political involvement in Iran. But the stage of our media-centric, internet-obsessed life means that everyone feels entitled to their opinion, and the right to share it. With little or no consequences for false predictions, these individuals have nothing to lose from their forecasts. And as consumers we eat it up.